The 30-60-90 framework for rigorous loyalty testing

If faced with declining retention or stagnant engagement, the temptation for loyalty teams is to change everything at once. New offer structures. Revised messaging. Different send times. Fresh creative. A redesigned landing page. The logic feels sound - if one change might help, surely five changes will help more?!

The thing is that when multiple variables shift simultaneously, attribution becomes impossible. If results improve, you cannot know which change drove the improvement. If results decline, you cannot know which change caused the damage. You have generated activity without generating insight. The next quarter, you are no wiser than you were before.

The discipline of testing one variable at a time is not glamorous. It requires patience in a profession that rewards speed. It demands rigour in an environment that celebrates creativity. But it is the only reliable path from hypothesis to knowledge, and knowledge is the foundation upon which sustainable loyalty programmes are built.

Why Multi-Variable Testing Fails.

The appeal of testing multiple changes simultaneously is efficiency. Why run four sequential tests when you can run one combined test in the same timeframe? The answer lies in a concept statisticians call interaction effects. When you change both your offer value and your subject line, you are not simply measuring two independent effects. You are measuring the effect of the offer, the effect of the subject line, and the effect of how those two changes interact with each other. A compelling subject line might amplify a strong offer or mask a weak one. A generous discount might perform brilliantly with straightforward messaging and terribly with clever copy. Without isolating each variable, you cannot untangle these interactions.

The 30-60-90 Framework.

Effective testing requires a structure that balances speed with rigour. A practical approach is what we at CORA Loyalty call the 30-60-90 framework: design tests that can yield actionable insights within 30 days, with decision points at 60 and 90 days for iteration and scaling.

In the first 30 days, you test a single hypothesis with a clear success metric. The hypothesis must be specific enough to be falsifiable. "This offer will perform better" is not a hypothesis. "A 15% discount will generate higher redemption rates than a 10% discount among customers in the re-engagement stage" is a hypothesis.

At 60 days, you review results and iterate. If the hypothesis was confirmed, you test the next variable in the chain. If it was rejected, you formulate a new hypothesis based on what you learned. The key is that each iteration builds on validated knowledge rather than assumption.

At 90 days, you assess whether the accumulated learning justifies scaling. A successful test is not automatically a successful program. Scale introduces new variables - operational capacity, margin impact, customer fatigue - that must be considered before rollout.

This framework enforces discipline without paralysis. You are always testing, always learning, always moving forward. But you are moving forward on solid ground.

The Courage to Hold Back.

The hardest part of single-variable testing is cultural. When stakeholders want results and competitors are moving fast, advocating for a slower, more deliberate approach requires conviction.

Multi-variable testing produces faster activity but slower learning. Single-variable testing produces slower activity but faster compounding of knowledge. Over a 12-month horizon, the team that tests with discipline will outperform the team that tests with enthusiasm.

This is because knowledge compounds. Each validated insight becomes the foundation for the next experiment. Each rejected hypothesis eliminates a dead end. The team accumulates an ever-clearer map of what actually drives customer behaviour in their specific context - not what worked for a case study at a conference, but what works for their customers, their program, their market.

The purpose of testing is to reduce uncertainty. Every well-designed test, regardless of outcome, makes you more certain about some aspect of your customer relationships. That certainty is an asset that informs strategy, justifies investment, and builds executive confidence.

If you’d like to get a conversation started, please reach out to us at loyalty@thecoragroup.com or use our contact page.